af Magazine
～The Asahi Glass Foundation’s web magazine on the global environment～
Data Shows Increasing Climate Disasters; It's Time for Action
Professor Debarati Guha-Sapir of Belgium was one of the laureates of the 2023 Blue Planet Prize. She created and developed the world's first data infrastructure for major disasters, the Emergency Events Database, EM-DAT. Her leadership in developing EM-DAT, which has recorded data for over 30 years, has become the cornerstone of scientific data essential for evidence-based policy formulation. It is used by numerous international organizations and national governments to address climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. This article shows the background of how EM-DAT was established, the current state of climate disasters, and Professor Guha-Sapir's message to us, based on an interview conducted with her in May 2023 and her commemorative lecture in October 2023.
Countries won't act without accurate, standardized data; Focusing on the relief of victims and disaster mitigation
"Currently, a multitude of natural disasters are dominating newspaper headlines every year. In 2023, Libya experienced severe flooding. In Canada and Australia, large-scale forest fires occur almost every year; this year, many countries were hit by heatwaves. Even countries that have experienced few natural disasters in the past are now witnessing the onset of such events. The impact of disasters is felt worldwide, regardless of a country's wealth. The data infrastructure that we have built is now playing a major role in the response planning for these disasters," Professor Guha-Sapir explains.
The data infrastructure that Professor Debarati Guha-Sapir refers to is the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), a large database of global disasters. The Professor established this database in the 1980s.
In 1984, she started working for the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, CRED, at the Catholic University of Louvain, where she has been serving as the director since 1992. She was trained as an epidemiologist and a specialist in public health, and at the start of her career, her primary focus was on Africa, which was experiencing severe famine. In 1986, she visited Chad, a country located in central Africa which was suffering from drought. When she reported to her supervisor that she found many victims while investigating the famine, she received feedback that simply reporting the situation wouldn't lead to bringing about concrete change to the situation of the local communities.
Professor Thompson and his team's 2004 paper, titled 'Lost at Sea: Where Is All the Plastic?', was the first to inform the world of the existence of marine microplastics. This paper generated a great deal of interest, and microplastics surveys began to be conducted around the world. As a result, we have gradually gained a better understanding of where and how microplastics exist. And the reality far exceeded Thompson's expectations.
"Sound evidence is necessary to influence policy making and bring about action among countries or organizations. The mere number of victims is not informative enough in itself. Data is only meaningful as evidence when combined with other factors, such as the number of victims in relation to the entire population of the region, or the circumstances surrounding the death of individuals. This was the advice I received.
I realized that accumulating precise data is essential to quantify the human impact of disasters. Without accurate and standardized data, the information gathered would not be either useful or credible. At that time, various countries were already collecting disaster data individually. However, I saw the need to create a global database that aggregates this information, carefully verifies data from different sources, and provides information for disaster relief and mitigation," Professor Guha-Sapir explained.
Reading Natural Disasters from EM-DAT: Climate Disasters Account for 90% of the Total over the Last 20 Years
What are the features and groundbreaking points of EM-DAT? Professor Guha-Sapir says, "EM-DAT records standardized data from all over the world. Standardization makes it possible to compare the impact of disasters across regions and over time.
EM-DAT currently holds data for the past 122 years, covering significant natural disasters that have occurred in 184 countries worldwide since 1900. The accuracy of the data has been consistently improving since the 1980s. According to Professor Guha-Sapir, the data for the past 20 years is highly reliable and contains vital information that should be used for policy making. She states that there are two important points that can be learned from EM-DAT about the situation of natural disasters over the past 20 years.
"The first point is the sharp increase in the proportion of climate disasters within the overall disaster landscape. In the past eight years, approximately 90% of all disasters were climate related.
The second point is that the severity of each disaster is clearly increasing compared to the past. The scale of damage caused by a single natural disaster has significantly increased, impacting more people. Climate disasters not only result in direct damage and deaths but also can lead to factors contributing to poverty, ranging from the loss of a family's breadwinner, loss of children's mother, and environmental destruction leading to the spread of diseases. These changes should be included as loss and damage due to climate change, specifically caused by global warming."
Climate disasters encompass three of the six classifications of natural disasters: hydrological disasters like floods and landslides, meteorological disasters such as storms, extreme temperatures and fog, as well as climatological disasters, which include droughts and wildfires. When viewed globally, EM-DAT's data demonstrates that these climate disasters significantly outnumber other disasters like earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.
May Conceal or Disclose; Moving EM-DAT into the Next Phase
Professor Guha-Sapir has made significant contributions to global climate disaster preparedness for over 30 years through the development of EM-DAT, data collection, and research. She also points out the importance of not overlooking this crucial aspect when using data.
"When we consider the magnitude of natural disaster impacts, we tend to assess the severity of the disaster based on the economic loss that were incurred at that time. However, some disasters go unreported because their economic impact is small. Nearly 90% of the disasters in Africa have no recorded economic loss data. This is because estimates by specialized institutions like insurance companies only cover losses with monetary value, under-estimating losses involving human fatalities or disabilities. The disparity in wealth between countries can affect the perception of the scale of damage, leading to a significantly different understanding of the actual situation,"
Another important point Professor Guha-Sapir raises is that when looking at global data, it's possible to overlook the difficult situations in specific regions, even though it appears that floods are decreasing worldwide, there might be an increase in a particular region as is the case in Africa. She emphasizes the need to collect data with better coverage.
"To address such situations, we have already begun working on the next phase of EM-DAT. In the past, we mainly verified and accumulated data from secondary sources, information obtained indirectly from third parties. However, in the next phase, we plan to collect data directly. We aim to utilize satellite technology to obtain raw data and understand the actual impact of disasters," she explains.
Data and Evidence Are Already in Hand. Now is the Time to Act
Last year, at COP27 (the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) held in Egypt, "Loss and Damage" became a significant topic of discussion. Driven by strong demands from developing countries, including those in Africa, the member nations agreed to establish a fund to support climate-vulnerable developing nations.
"At COP27, there were discussions about the need for evidence regarding loss and damage due to climate hazards. However, I believe that now there is already enough evidence and it's time to take action," Professor Guha-Sapir emphasizes.
For example, China and India, both of which have numerous rivers flowing through plains, are significantly affected when hit by heavy rainfall. These two countries are already experiencing massive flood impacts affecting millions--perhaps hundreds of millions. In recent decades, rising temperatures, or heatwaves, are gradually becoming more pronounced, but their impacts are badly measured and their effects on humans are not well understood. Professor Guha-Sapir predicts that the issue of heatwaves will become increasingly severe over the next 10 to 15 years and we should focus on pragmatic research to assess their impacts in both rich and poorer countries.
Understanding these issues, Guha-Sapir, her team members, and global network of colleagues, have taken numerous actions to ensure that these situations are reflected in the policy-making at the national and international level. They have written articles for media outlets, engaged with the European Parliament, national parliaments, international organizations like UNICEF, and provided recommendations for budget allocations. They have also conducted advocacy activities to raise awareness about climate disasters.
Professor Guha-Sapir said, "To garner people's attention, explanation is necessary. EM-DAT is an excellent database; however, it doesn't factor in the human impact when assessing the severity of disasters. While dealing with a lot of data, we must remember that behind the numbers are the lives and futures of under-privileged women and young children whose opportunities are often limited."
Lastly, here is a message from Professor Guha-Sapir addressed to the youth of Japan, who will shape the future.
"To the young people of Japan who will carry the torch in the years to come, I encourage you to go out into the world more and see, with your own eyes, the events in various countries, the lives of people from different cultures, especially those in poorer nations grappling with extreme weather. Get to know those beyond your own borders and take action to help them. It's essential to move beyond your 'comfort zone' and cultivate a mindset that is based on objective evidence."
Profile
Professor Debarati Guha-Sapir, Belgium
One of the two 2023 Blue Planet Prize recipients
Founder Director of the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Université Catholique de Louvain
Senior Fellow, Centre for Humanitarian Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Professor Debarati Guha-Sapir founded and led the development of the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the first data infrastructure of global disasters triggered by climate change e.g. storms, geo-physical hazards e.g. earthquakes, biological agents e.g. pandemics, and humanitarian disasters e.g. conflicts. EM-DAT and her body of research over thirty years serves as a scientific foundation for evidence-based policy making, used by many international organizations, national governments, and research institutes working on climate change mitigation and adaptation measures; and disaster prevention and mitigation.